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Abstract Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the primary sources of geomagnetic storms at Earth. The negative out-of-ecliptic component (B_z) of magnetic field in the ICME or its associated sheath region is necessary for it to be geoeffective. For this reason, magnetohydrodynamic simulations of CMEs containing data-constrained flux ropes are more suitable for forecasting their geoeffectiveness as compared to hydrodynamic models of the CME. ICMEs observed in situ by radially aligned spacecraft can provide an important setup to validate the physics-based heliospheric modeling of CMEs. In this work, we use the constant-turn flux rope (CTFR) model to study an ICME that was observed in situ by Solar Orbiter (SolO) and at Earth, when they were in a near-radial alignment. This was a stealth CME that erupted on 2020 April 14 and reached Earth on 2020 April 20 with a weak shock and a smoothly rotating magnetic field signature. We found that the CTFR model was able to reproduce the rotating magnetic field signature at both SolO and Earth with very good accuracy. The simulated ICME arrived 5 hr late at SolO and 5 hr ahead at Earth, when compared to the observed ICME. We compare the propagation of the CME front through the inner heliosphere using synthetic J-maps and those observed in the heliospheric imager data and discuss the role of incorrect ambient solar wind background on kinematics of the simulated CME. This study supports the choice of the CTFR model for reproducing the magnetic field of ICMEs. 

Abstract To address Objective II of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan “Develop and Disseminate Accurate and Timely Space Weather Characterization and Forecasts” and US Congress PROSWIFT Act 116–181, our team is developing a new set of open-source software that would ensure substantial improvements of Space Weather (SWx) predictions. On the one hand, our focus is on the development of data-driven solar wind models. On the other hand, each individual component of our software is designed to have accuracy higher than any existing SWx prediction tools with a dramatically improved performance. This is done by the application of new computational technologies and enhanced data sources. The development of such software paves way for improved SWx predictions accompanied with an appropriate uncertainty quantification. This makes it possible to forecast hazardous SWx effects on the space-borne and ground-based technological systems, and on human health. Our models include (1) a new, open-source solar magnetic flux model (OFT), which evolves information to the back side of the Sun and its poles, and updates the model flux with new observations using data assimilation methods; (2) a new potential field solver (POT3D) associated with the Wang–Sheeley–Arge coronal model, and (3) a new adaptive, 4-th order of accuracy solver (HelioCubed) for the Reynolds-averaged MHD equations implemented on mapped multiblock grids (cubed spheres). We describe the software and results obtained with it, including the application of machine learning to modeling coronal mass ejections, which makes it possible to improve SWx predictions by decreasing the time-of-arrival mismatch. The tests show that our software is formally more accurate and performs much faster than its predecessors used for SWx predictions. 

The Sun moves with respect to the local interstellar medium (LISM) and modifies its properties to heliocentric distances as large as 1 pc. The solar wind (SW) is affected by penetration of the LISM neutral particles, especially H and He atoms. Charge exchange between the LISM atoms and SW ions creates pickup ions (PUIs) and secondary neutral atoms that can propagate deep into the LISM. Neutral atoms measured at 1 au can provide us with valuable information on the properties of pristine LISM. New Horizons provides us with unique measurements of pickup ions in the SW region where they are thermodynamically dominant. Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft perform in-situ measurements of the LISM perturbed by the presence of the heliosphere and relate them to the unperturbed region. The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) makes it possible identify the 3-D structure of the heliospheric interface. We outline the main challenges in the physics of the SW–LISM interaction. The physical processes that require a focused attention of the heliospheric community are discussed from the theoretical perspective and space missions necessary for their investigation. We emphasize the importance of data-driven simulations, which are necessary for the interpretation and explanation of spacecraft data. 

Abstract Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 2012 July 12 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hr. We further estimate the average subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings by comparing the GCS parameters of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average uncertainties of 5.°74, 11.°23, 24.°71, and 11.4%, respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the 2012 July 12 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window to about 12 hr for the 2012 July 12 CME. On investigating the forecast accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the predicted magnetic field of the 2012 July 12 CME, whereas the uncertainties in longitude and tilt can introduce relatively large spread in the magnetic field predicted at Earth. 

Abstract The arrival time prediction of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions remains above 12 hr, even with the increasing complexity of methods. In this work we develop a new method for CME arrival time prediction that uses magnetohydrodynamic simulations involving data-constrained flux-rope-based CMEs, which are introduced in a data-driven solar wind background. We found that for six CMEs studied in this work the MAE in arrival time was ∼8 hr. We further improved our arrival time predictions by using ensemble modeling and comparing the ensemble solutions with STEREO-A and STEREO-B heliospheric imager data. This was done by using our simulations to create synthetic J-maps. A machine-learning (ML) method called the lasso regression was used for this comparison. Using this approach, we could reduce the MAE to ∼4 hr. Another ML method based on the neural networks (NNs) made it possible to reduce the MAE to ∼5 hr for the cases when HI data from both STEREO-A and STEREO-B were available. NNs are capable of providing similar MAE when only the STEREO-A data are used. Our methods also resulted in very encouraging values of standard deviation (precision) of arrival time. The methods discussed in this paper demonstrate significant improvements in the CME arrival time predictions. Our work highlights the importance of using ML techniques in combination with data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic modeling to improve space weather predictions. 

Abstract Nonthermal, pickup ions (PUIs) represent an energetic component of the solar wind (SW). While a number of theoretical models have been proposed to describe the PUI flow, of major importance are in situ measurements providing us with the vital source of model validation. The Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) instrument on board the Ulysses spacecraft was specifically designed for this purpose. Zhang et al. proposed a new, accurate method for the derivation of ion velocity distribution function in the SW frame on the basis of count rates collected by SWICS. We calculate the moments of these distribution functions for protons (H + ) and He + ions along the Ulysses trajectory for a period of 2 months including the Halloween 2003 solar storm. This gives us the time distributions of PUI density and temperature. We compare these with the results obtained earlier for the same interval of time, in which the ion spectra are converted to the SW frame using the narrow-beam approximation. Substantial differences are identified, which are of importance for the interpretation of PUI distributions in the 3D, time-dependent heliosphere. We also choose one of the shocks crossed by Ulysses during this time interval and analyze the distribution functions and PUI bulk properties in front of and behind it. The results are compared with the test-particle calculations and diffusive shock acceleration theory. 

Abstract The solar wind (SW) and local interstellar medium (LISM) are turbulent media. Their interaction is governed by complex physical processes and creates heliospheric regions with significantly different properties in terms of particle populations, bulk flow and turbulence. Our knowledge of the solar wind turbulence nature and dynamics mostly relies on near-Earth and near-Sun observations, and has been increasingly improving in recent years due to the availability of a wealth of space missions, including multi-spacecraft missions. In contrast, the properties of turbulence in the outer heliosphere are still not completely understood. In situ observations by Voyager and New Horizons , and remote neutral atom measurements by IBEX strongly suggest that turbulence is one of the critical processes acting at the heliospheric interface. It is intimately connected to charge exchange processes responsible for the production of suprathermal ions and energetic neutral atoms. This paper reviews the observational evidence of turbulence in the distant SW and in the LISM, advances in modeling efforts, and open challenges.